Anyone who’s lived in Topanga for any length of time develops a complicated relationship with rain because, as much as we look forward to seeing the creek running again and watching the hills turn green, we also know how quickly several days of heavy weather can affect life in the canyon.
Our steep hillsides, narrow roads, creek crossings, private driveways and limited ways in and out mean that preparing for winter here involves much more than cleaning the gutters and checking the roof. When the ground becomes saturated, rocks and trees can come down, slopes can move, creeks can rise quickly, and a route that was open when you left home in the morning may not be available when you’re trying to get back that evening.
There’s more reason than usual to think about those possibilities this year because NOAA’s August 2026 outlook says El Niño is continuing to strengthen, with a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA is also giving the coming El Niño a 69 percent chance of reaching historically strong levels during October through December, although that doesn’t mean anyone can predict exactly how much rain Southern California, or Topanga specifically, will receive.
For those of us who live here, the forecast isn’t really about trying to predict whether this will become another legendary Topanga winter. It’s more about recognizing that we’ve got plenty of time right now to deal with the things that become much harder to address once several inches of rain are already in the forecast.
What Topanga’s History Can Teach Us
Having been born and raised in Topanga, I’ve seen how differently rain can affect one part of the canyon from another, and I’ve learned over the years that the total amount of rainfall is only one part of what determines whether a winter becomes difficult.
How quickly the rain falls matters, but so does how much water the ground has already absorbed, how much time there is between storms, where runoff travels once it reaches a property, and whether our roads, culverts, creeks and hillsides can handle it.
During the storms of 1969, more than 27 inches of rain fell and Topanga Canyon Boulevard was closed around the S-curves while secondary roads became impassable in several places, leaving some residents temporarily cut off and making access to homes and supplies much more difficult.
Another major storm in 1980 caused six separate sections of Topanga Canyon Boulevard to collapse, which once again showed how vulnerable our primary route through the canyon can become when heavy rain, steep terrain and unstable ground come together.
Many longtime Topanga residents also remember the 1997-98 El Niño winter, when local rainfall records cited by TCEP show approximately 55 inches of rain falling in the canyon. That season brought extensive erosion and slope problems, including the collapse of the Topanga Turnout shopping center.
The winter of 2004-05 brought even more rain, with the Robinson Road area recording 64.82 inches for the season, which is a reminder that Topanga has experienced exceptionally wet winters both during and outside of the El Niño years people tend to remember most.
Looking back at those events isn’t meant to suggest that we’re heading into a repeat of 1969, 1980 or 1998, but it does put into perspective how much our geography matters when rain continues for days or when one storm follows another before the soil has had enough time to dry.
We Don’t Have to Go Far Back to Remember What a Slide Can Do
Many of us experienced that disruption again in March 2024, when heavy rain triggered a major landslide on Topanga Canyon Boulevard and brought dirt, rocks and a car-sized boulder down onto the highway.
Because the hillside above the roadway remained unstable, crews couldn’t simply remove the debris and reopen the road, and the closure between Topanga and the coast continued until June 2. Trips that normally took a short drive down the canyon became long detours, everyday routines had to be rearranged, and local businesses that depend on people traveling through Topanga felt the effects for months.
The Palisades Fire in January 2025 created another concern because burned hillsides can respond very differently when significant rain follows a fire. During storms after the fire, tens of thousands of cubic yards of mud and debris came down onto portions of SR-27, sections of roadway were damaged, and Caltrans began extensive recovery work that’s included retaining walls, debris-flow barriers, drainage improvements and a much larger pipe beneath the highway designed to carry more water and debris during future storms.
That work is still relevant as we head toward another rainy season, and while it doesn’t mean we should assume Topanga Canyon Boulevard will close during the next major storm, it’s a good reminder that road access has always been part of winter preparedness here.
Look at Your Property Before the Rain Shows You the Problems
One of the most useful things you can do while the weather is still dry is walk around your property and look at it differently than you normally would, paying less attention to how everything looks and more attention to where water is likely to travel once the rain really gets going.
Look uphill from the house as well as downhill, notice where leaves and debris have collected, check the places where water naturally drains and take another look at anything that gave you trouble last winter. If there’s a drain that always backs up, a gutter that overflows, a culvert under the driveway that’s filling with dirt or an area where water tends to head toward the house instead of away from it, this is the easiest time of year to deal with it.
On hillside properties, it’s also worth looking closely at retaining walls and slopes, especially if you’ve noticed new cracks, erosion, bulging, leaning or water appearing somewhere it didn’t used to. None of those things automatically means there’s a serious problem, but if something has noticeably changed, it’s much better to have the right person look at it now than to start worrying about it after several days of rain.
Trees deserve the same attention because saturated soil combined with wind can put additional stress on trees that are already compromised. If you’ve got substantial deadwood, a large limb hanging over the house or driveway, visible root problems or a tree growing on a slope where erosion has become more noticeable, having it evaluated before winter can save a much more difficult problem later.
It’s also worth walking the property again after the first meaningful rain because water often reveals things you couldn’t see during dry weather, including runoff taking a completely different route than you expected or a small obstruction diverting a surprising amount of water toward a driveway, retaining wall or structure.
Why Several Storms in a Row Can Become a Bigger Concern
Although most of us naturally pay the most attention to the biggest storm in the forecast, some of the conditions that lead to erosion and slope movement develop gradually as one storm follows another and the ground has less time to dry between them.
A hillside that handled the first few storms without any noticeable problem can behave very differently after weeks of repeated rain, which is why it makes sense to continue watching the property throughout the season rather than assuming everything’s fine because the first storm passed without incident.
New cracks in the soil, leaning fences or trees, water suddenly appearing from a hillside, unusual erosion or changes near the bottom of a slope are all worth paying attention to, particularly after several storms have already saturated the ground.
Recently burned areas deserve even closer attention because the vegetation that once helped slow runoff and hold soil in place may no longer be there. The debris-flow barriers and additional drainage capacity being installed along portions of Topanga Canyon Boulevard after the Palisades Fire are a reminder of how differently fire-damaged terrain can respond once heavy rain begins.
Road Access Needs to Be Part of the Plan
For people living in many parts of Los Angeles, getting ready for a storm might mostly mean checking the roof and cleaning the gutters, while in Topanga it also makes sense to think about whether you’ll be able to get home if your normal route becomes unavailable.
Topanga Canyon Boulevard is our main connection north and south, but many residents also depend on narrow side roads, private roads, bridges, creek crossings and steep driveways that can become difficult to use when the weather changes.
When a substantial storm is forecast, I’d rather take care of errands a little earlier than find myself needing something when the roads are bad. Keeping the car reasonably fueled, making sure prescriptions and pet food aren’t about to run out, and having enough groceries and household basics on hand can make staying home for a few days considerably easier if conditions become difficult.
The car itself deserves some attention before winter as well, particularly since driving Topanga Canyon Boulevard in a heavy downpour isn’t the time to discover that your windshield wipers have dried out over the summer. Checking the wipers, tire tread and pressure, headlights, brake lights and windshield washer fluid takes very little time, and keeping a phone charger, flashlight, rain jacket and a few basic supplies in the car is useful if a closure unexpectedly turns the normal drive home into a much longer trip.
If your normal access involves a creek crossing, bridge or private road, it’s also worth thinking about what you’d do if that route became temporarily unusable. Water moving across a familiar crossing can change very quickly, and even when the depth doesn’t look particularly dramatic, flowing water may have damaged or washed away part of the roadway underneath where you can’t see it.
Getting the House Ready Doesn’t Have to Become a Major Project
Most rainy-season preparation is surprisingly ordinary, which may be why it’s so easy to put off until the weather report suddenly shows several days of rain.
Before winter gets underway, I’d make sure the gutters and downspouts are clear, drains and culverts aren’t packed with leaves or dirt, the roof doesn’t have a known leak that still needs attention, and anything outside that could blow away or wash into a drainage area is secured. If sandbags make sense for a particular part of your property, having them before everyone in Los Angeles is looking for them at the same time makes life considerably easier.
Inside the house, it’s a good time to find the flashlights, make sure they actually work, replace old batteries and charge the portable power banks that have probably been sitting in a drawer since the last outage. Having drinking water, basic groceries, prescription medications, pet supplies and the things your household regularly depends on means you’re much less likely to feel that you have to go out when the weather is at its worst.
Power outages also deserve a little thought because many Topanga homes have systems that depend on electricity in ways we don’t necessarily think about every day. If you’ve got an electric gate or garage door, make sure you know how to open it manually, and if your property relies on pumps, a well, septic equipment or other electrically powered systems, it’s worth understanding what happens to them during an extended outage.
Anyone with a generator or backup power system should make sure it’s working before it’s actually needed, rather than finding out something’s wrong when the lights are already off and the rain is coming down.
A Few Things That Are Easy to Forget Before the Rains
Some of the most useful preparations are the ordinary things that are easy to forget during months of dry weather, so this is a good time to replace worn windshield wipers, check the tires, top off washer fluid and make sure the car is ready for wet canyon roads before the first large storm arrives.
It’s also worth checking the flashlights, replacing old batteries, charging portable battery packs and making sure you’ve got enough pet food, prescriptions and other household essentials to avoid unnecessary trips during bad weather. If you’ve got rain jackets, waterproof boots or work gloves buried somewhere in a garage or closet, finding them now is much easier than searching for them when you suddenly need them.
Around the property, take another look at the places where water caused trouble last winter, clear anything that could wash into a drain or culvert, and make sure you know where your sandbags or other drainage supplies are if your home uses them. These preparations aren’t complicated, but dealing with them while the sun is out is much easier than trying to solve the same problems when the canyon is already in the middle of a storm.
What the El Niño Forecast Actually Means for Topanga
Nobody can responsibly tell us this far in advance exactly how much rain Topanga will receive this winter, even with a very strong El Niño developing, because El Niño increases the likelihood of certain weather patterns without guaranteeing exactly where the heaviest rain will fall or how individual storms will behave.
What we do know is that we live in steep canyon terrain with a long history of flooding, landslides, erosion and road closures during major rain events, while portions of the canyon are still recovering from recent fire and storm damage. When you put that together with NOAA’s current forecast for an unusually strong El Niño, there’s a very practical reason to use the next few months to take care of the things we already know need attention.
Every property in Topanga responds to rain a little differently, which is why preparing here is really about knowing your own home and paying attention to what’s happened there before. Some of us need to watch a creek crossing, some have steep driveways or private roads, some have large trees close to the house, and others have slopes, retaining walls or drainage areas that deserve extra attention once the ground becomes saturated.
Hopefully, the coming winter brings us plenty of the rain we need without the kind of damage we’ve experienced in the past, and we get to enjoy the part of rainy season that those of us who live here still look forward to, when Topanga Creek begins running again and the canyon slowly turns green.